Friday, September 24, 2010

FOREX-Dlr/yen spikes on intervention talk, euro jumps

* Dollar/yen jumps above 85 yen then retreats

* Traders cite intervention talk but no confirmation

* Euro rises on IFO, resilient to sovereign debt problems

(updates prices)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The dollar spiked above 85.00 yen on Friday on talk of intervention by Japanese authorities keen to stem the yen's recent gains, but quickly retreated as doubts emerged about whether they had taken action.

That left investors nervous about more intervention and, with risk aversion hitting markets, traders said the Bank of Japan's task of weakening the yen was becoming even tougher.

The dollar rose as high as 85.40 yen JPY= from about 84.55 before talk of intervention emerged, climbing more than one yen from 84.34 yen. It later retreated to 84.26 yen, a one-week low and down 0.1 percent for the day.

"The price action certainly suggested that the Japanese intervened, but one can't be sure," said Kenneth Broux, markets strategist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets.

"With stock markets retreating and a general pullback in risk appetite, the yen and the Swiss franc will be supported, making the BoJ's job harder."

Japanese officials stayed silent on whether they had intervened. Top currency diplomat Rintaro Tamaki declined to comment, Jiji news agency reported, and the Bank of Japan and the government also had no comment. [ID:nTKU106266].

Japan intervened for the first time in six years last week in repeated action that pushed the yen down from a 15-year high of 82.87 per dollar and shunted it above 85.

The dollar stayed above 85.00 yen until the Federal Reserve signalled this week that it might take more quantitative easing steps, putting widespread selling pressure on the greenback and casting doubt over how effective solo intervention can be.

"At these levels, one can expect the Japanese to intervene," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at BTM-UFJ. "Certainly the stronger fundamentals support a stronger yen, but I guess the Japanese authorities will be keen to draw a line in the sand .
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Futures Rise Slightly Before Durable Goods Data

There's No Business Like FOX Business
Stock futures pointed to a slightly-positive open on Friday as Wall Street waits for durable goods and new home sales data out this morning.
As of 7:30 a.m. in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 38 points, or 0.36%, to 10644, the S&P 500 futures rose 4.6 points to 1125.00 and the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 10.75 points to 1992.25.
U.S. investors will get durable goods data at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by new homes sales shortly after the market open at 10 a.m. ET.
Economists are looking for durable goods orders to drop 1.4% for the August report, according to Thomson Reuters, compared with the 0.4% rise reported for July.
New home sales are expected to bounce off the multi-year low of 276,000 annualized units that was reported in the July data and rise to 291,000 units.
Gold remains in rally mode, striking $1,300 a troy ounce earlier this morning before backing off some. Oil was up 0.3% to $75.41 a barrel.
On Thursday, the Dow sank 76.89 points, or 0.72%, to 10662.42, the Standard & Poor's 500 fell 9.45 points, or 0.83%, to 1124.83 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.47 points, or 0.32%, to 2327.08. The FOX 50 dropped 6.40 points, or 0.78%, to 813.71.

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Sunday, September 19, 2010

Forex Exchange Morning Report

Forex Exchange Morning Report


US equities closed on Friday little changed (S&P500 +0.1%), giving up early gains in the fi rst hour of trading. Solid earnings from Oracle (second largest software producer in the world) contributed to the early boost, a weak US consumer confi dence report and Irish sovereign credit concerns responsible fro the turnaround. The Irish Finance Minister and the IMF both quashed rumours sweeping the market the country may need to seek IMF assistance, while some former Portugese fi nance ministers opined their country was likely to. Government bond yields (10yr) for Ireland rose 26bp to a post-1997 high of 6.29%, and Portugal they rose 13bp, compared to a 5bp fall for Germany. Commodities were modestly higher, oil (-1.2%) a notable exception. US 10yr treasury yields were 2bp at the close



The US dollar index moved inversely with US equities, closing modestly fi rmer. EUR fell from an early session peak of 1.3159 to 1.3020. Safe-haven Swiss franc outperformed, USD/CHF falling from 1.0180 to 1.0070. USD/JPY consolidated between 85.65 and 85.90.



AUD peaked during early Europe at 0.9466 (a fresh high), closing near the low of 0.9354.



NZD similarly peaked at 0.7333 and closed at 0.7251. AUD/NZD drifted off the 1.2955 session peak to 1.2900.



US core CPI fl at in Aug. This is the fourth month of eight so far this year that the core CPI has been fl at or falling – further evidence that very accommodative monetary policy has thus far not aggravated infl ationary pressures. The headline rate rose 0.3% in Aug, mainly due to a 2.3% rise in the energy component; food prices were up just 0.1%. Annual infl ation is 1.1% yr headline and 0.9% yr core.



US UoM consumer sentiment index falls from 68.9 to 66.6 in the preliminary Sep report. The fall to the lowest level for the year so far was driven entirely by the outlook component; the current conditions index edged up marginally.



Euroland current account defi cit €3.8bn in Jul. With the trade balance now in defi cit too, current account defi cits are likely to persist for a while yet. Other data included a fl at producer price index in Germany in Aug, for a 3.2% yr annual pace (down from 3.7% yr in Jul, its fi rst decline since last year).

Buyside uses technology to reconnect with clients

Institutional investors that have embraced the electronic revolution in the financial markets over the past decade are being forced to rely more than ever on technology to find the best returns in the face of a slump in trading volumes.

Despite a surge of activity in May, when equities worth €1.2 trillion were traded in Europe, volumes have fallen for three consecutive months – to €979bn in June, €846bn in July and €763bn last month, according to data provider Thomson Reuters. These figures are well short of the pre-crisis heights of January 2008, when volumes reached €1.5 trillion.



The outlook is grim too. The annual value of trading in UK equities relative to the size of the market is set to hit its lowest level for eight years, according to a report last month by share registrar Equiniti.



This depressed level of trading has brought with it more volatility, making it increasingly important for investors to seek out liquidity from the automated trading venues that have proliferated in Europe.



Rob Goldstein, managing director at asset manager BlackRock, and head of its technology division, BlackRock Solutions, said: “The amount of demand from the buyside for risk and investment platforms is at the greatest I’ve ever known it.



This is largely driven by a much greater awareness among firms that these platforms are incredibly complex to build, expensive to maintain and need to rapidly evolve with market changes.”



By 2006, 96% of buyside firms had adopted front-office trading technology, which includes systems to help execute a deal as opposed to portfolio management or compliance tools, according to a report published by consultancy Tabb Group in May. This figure is expected to reach 100% by the end of this year.



With such a high uptake of automated trading systems, it is not surprising that buyside firms are looking to use this technology more effectively in the face of thinner markets.



Chris Sims, head of investment operations at asset manager Gartmore, said: “We are not currently looking to radically invest in or change our trading technology, but are instead focusing on using the systems that we do have in a more efficient way.”



According to Sébastien Jaouen, head of trading community services in the trading solutions group of technology firm Orange Business Services, this focus on technology is putting pressure on vendors to be more innovative.



He said: “The combination of lower trading volumes and the impact of the financial crisis has resulted in less assets under management at hedge funds and other asset managers. As a result, our customers are looking for solutions that are not off-the-shelf, and that they can easily and quickly integrate with their existing systems.”



These solutions range from systems that allow multi-asset class capability, to algorithmic trading capability, as well as improved information management tools, all in bid to home in on venues offering the most liquidity, the narrowest spreads and the best prices.



Rob McGrath, global head of trading at asset manager Schroders, said: “Whether it is identifying ‘problem’ trades or sectors within a programme, or working out the best venue and way to trade a block, the more information traders have at their disposal the better.”



It is not just market forces that are causing buyside institutions to take stock of their technological capabilities. Firms will also have new legislation to contend with, as the European Commission seeks to overhaul its equity trading rulebook later this year.



The changes are set to include the introduction of a consolidated data feed showing prices across all of Europe’s venues, as well as limits on the amount of activity that can be conducted on dark pools, venues that allow orders to be matched anonymously.



Financial News looks at three areas of trading technology that are capturing the attention of buyside institutions: algorithmic trading, transaction cost analysis, and multi-asset class platforms.



Algorithmic trading



The way in which buyside institutions look to execute their trades is becoming an increasingly pertinent issue, particularly as what little liquidity there is left is fragmented across several venues.



For many, the solution lies in the use of tech-savvy systems that allow orders to be conducted with the click of a mouse.



Miranda Mizen, a principal at Tabb Group, said: “The buyside have turned heavily towards algorithmic trading strategies, and have invested in the time and technology to give them this capability.”



Algorithmic trading is a process whereby computer programmes automatically enter orders on to a venue, within parameters defined by the investor, and these often determine certain aspects of the trade including timing, price and quantity, in a bid to secure the best deal.



It is a method that is particularly favoured by the buyside, as it allows larger orders to be broken down into smaller units to help manage the impact of a trade on the market.



Sims said: “We’ve seen a gradual increase in the use of algorithmic trading strategies and I would imagine that a substantial and growing proportion of our trades are now conducted in this way.”



Goldstein said: “Algorithmic trading is on the up, largely as a result of an increase in the number of automised trading venues and less dealerisation.”



However, not all buyside institutions share the view that algorithmic trading is the only answer, particularly with equity volumes being so thin.



McGrath said that while the use of algorithmic trading techniques was increasing, the rate of adoption was slowing, as firms weighed the costs of different execution methods and lower volumes made certain types of algorithms less effective.



He said: “The rate of change is slowing as the blend between algorithmic trading and traditional broking finds its balance. In this environment the value of blocks increases, both in terms of speed of execution and reduced market impact.”



Block trades allow an institution to quickly and efficiently move into, or out of, a large position, and offer an alternative to breaking up an order into smaller sizes, but anonymity is important when trading in this way.



If a large block is placed on an exchange, negative signals may be sent to the wider market, for example that an asset manager is looking to sell, causing a downward spiral in prices, as traders observe a significant increase in the supply of a stock.



The ability of large institutions to trade large orders, or blocks, has improved with the advent of anonymous electronic trading venues such as Liquidnet and Posit, which aim to directly match corresponding orders away from lit exchanges, preventing adverse price movements.



Jim Conway, head of trading at asset manager Standard Life Investments, agreed that these venues were proving more valuable in the current climate.



Conway said: “Over the past three months we have been using our execution management system less, using capital commitment more and using crossing networks, such as Liquidnet and Posit, whenever possible.”



Transaction cost analysis



The use of technology is also gaining favour among the buyside for its analytical virtues, particularly as investors try to better judge the performance of their brokers.



McGrath said: “With electronic trading the ability to access the market quickly has increased dramatically, but one area where there has been a gap is with the integration of the tools that allow the trader to analyse the trade and therefore make their trading decisions.”



A process known as transaction cost analysis, or TCA, aims to close that void and Conway said it was becoming more important and high-profile across the industry.



TCA is essentially a reconciliation of the difference between two amounts – the first being the value at which a transaction could be executed at the moment a portfolio manager makes a decision to trade, without any additional costs, and the second being the amount realised.



The transaction costs that buyside institutions incur come from several sources. They include commissions from brokers and the fees and taxes paid to exchanges and regulators, as well as expenses that are less easy to define, such as market impact, which is determined by the forces of supply and demand.



The result is that TCA has become integral to the buyside’s trading process, allowing firms to achieve best execution, control trading costs and bring greater efficiencies to their operations.



Sims said: “We’re spending a lot more time on TCA, looking very closely at execution data and having conversations with our brokers in an effort to ensure we’re achieving the best deals.”



This view was shared by Goldstein, who said it was becoming a more effective tool as the quality of data improved. He said: “We are aggressively leveraging our TCA systems across different asset classes.



The quality of these systems is dependent on the quality of data, and with trading becoming more standardised and electronic, we have been able to improve our analysis.”



The popularity of TCA has risen in parallel with an increasing demand for execution data from regulators, according to Sims. He said: “I think it is also going to become increasingly important that we keep hold of transaction data, as this is something that will soon be required of us by regulators.”



Multi-asset class capability



As volumes in equities markets have remained thin, investors are seeking to diversify their portfolios into other asset classes, and technology is developing to meet this demand.



Goldstein said: “If we look at the trends across the last few months, we’re spending much more time developing technology solutions by sharing ideas across asset classes – we believe that the market structure evolution seen in equities over the past decade provides a significant amount of intelligence for how fixed income will evolve over the next few years.”



He said algorithmic trading was moving into new products such as foreign exchange and fixed income.

Other asset classes already account for a substantial portion of electronic volume. According to Tabb Group, 53% of buyside firms now trade financial products other than equities through their trading platforms.



Of this group, 29% said they traded futures and options electronically, and 16% of firms said they traded foreign exchange low-touch. Some 12% of firms said they exchanged their fixed-income trades on electronic platforms.



Jaouen said traders “want to be able to trade a whole range of products and trade globally and the onus is on vendors like us to develop these sort of systems”.



James Davies, head of sales and client services at Trayport, a company providing connections to commodities exchanges and which has buyside firms among its clients, said the demand in other asset classes was in its infancy.



“We’re experiencing increased demand and pressure from hedge funds that want to be able to automate their commodities trading.



“Commodities are not quite as developed as the equities market yet in terms of electronic trading, but it’s going down the same road and we very much see it as a market with a big potential for growth,” he said

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Govt To Stay Vigilant On Forex: Noda

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Tokyo will maintain a firm stance against foreign exchange market volatility, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Wednesday after the government and Bank of Japan intervened in the market to weaken the yen.

"(Japanese authorities) will continue to closely watch forex market trends," Noda said during a press conference at the ministry building. "We will take decisive steps, including market intervention, when necessary."

As for communication with U.S. and other overseas financial authorities, "The Japanese government is in close contact with relevant and necessary parties," Noda said.

But Noda declined to comment on how authorities overseas reacted to Japan's unilateral intervention.

Noda said he himself decided to intervene in the market, as such a measure is exclusively under the Finance Ministry's oversight. He told Prime Minister Naoto Kan about the unilateral move beforehand.

At 10:30 a.m., the ministry urged the Bank of Japan to conduct yen-selling, dollar-buying operations.

"I think the central bank had intervened in the market by 10:35 a.m.," Noda said.

Noda said the size of the intervention would be announced later, "once the intervention is complete."

A strong yen weakens the competitiveness of Japanese exporters' products overseas and erodes the exporters' earnings when they are repatriated.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

World markets rise as double-dip fears ease

 LONDON — World stock markets advanced modestly Monday as investors rode momentum from Friday, when an upbeat U.S. jobs report eased fears that the global economy could slip back into recession.
With Wall Street closed for a holiday, however, trading was expected to remain light.
Markets took heart after official data last week showed private employers in the U.S. added 67,000 jobs in August, more than analysts expected.
The figure bolstered optimism that the U.S. will maintain a slow but steady recovery from last year's recession and avoid another economic contraction later this year.
By mid-afternoon in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 index was up 0.3 percent at 5,446.17, Germany's DAX was 0.3 percent higher at 6,153.31 and France's CAC-40 was up 0.3 percent at 3,684.20. Asian indexes closed higher and trading on Wall Street was to remain shut for Labor Day weekend after closing higher on Friday.
With most major governments reining in economic stimulus measures and many pushing through austerity spending cuts to reduce deficits, investors worry the global economy would be pushed into a double dip recession, particularly as the U.S. slows down quickly.
Because the U.S. economy is the world's largest and consumer spending there accounts for a fifth of global economic activity, the stronger-than-expected jobs data on Friday helped calm investors' frayed nerves after weeks of worrying indicators.
"The renewed flight to safety we have witnessed over the past month is overdone and risks an equally large reversal when the worries over a double dip subside," analysts from Rabobank said in a report.
"As the unexciting, steady and below-trend global recovery continues, it's important not to confuse it with a double dip recession."
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.1 percent, or 187.19, to 9,301.32 and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.7 percent to 1,792.42.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 1.8 percent to 21,355.77. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.8 percent at 4,575.50. Markets in mainland China, Taiwan, India, Indonesia and Singapore were also higher.
The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 1.2 percent to close at 10,447.93 on Friday. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.3 percent to 1,104.51.
Shares in the U.S. ended the week in the positive, the first time that has happened in a month. The early gains in September mark a stark turnaround from August trade, when shares fell on doubts about the global economic recovery.
The dollar fell to 84.24 yen from 84.27 yen on Friday. The euro was slightly lower at $1.2880 from $1.2895.
Benchmark oil for October delivery was down 40 cents at $74.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 42 cents to settle at $74.60 on Friday.

Noteworthy | Bats Global Markets had a record U.S. market share for August Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/09/06/2203445/noteworthy-bats-global-markets.html#ixzz0ypySKXgE

 Bats Global Markets, a Lenexa-based electronic trading exchange, said it had a record U.S. market share for August of 10.6 percent and a high of 5.8 percent in Europe. The share of U.S. market trading for August dipped slightly from its 11 percent slice for July.
Done deal
Epiq Systems, which provides software for lawyers handling bankruptcy, litigation and other financial and regulatory matters, said it had successfully completed a nearly $30 million stock buyback. The company said it had repurchased roughly 2.3 million shares at an average price of $12.83.
Freaky speaker
“Freakonomics” co-author Stephen Dubner will be the featured speaker at Park University’s Xerox Global Business Lecture Series at 7 p.m. Oct. 7 at the Folly Theater. “Freakonomics,” written by Dubner and Steven Levitt, was published in 2005 and became a best-seller and cultural phenomenon with more than 4 million copies sold. The two later teamed on a sequel, ”Superfreakonomics.” Tickets for the lecture are $10 each and can be purchased at the Folly box office at 1020 Central

Crude Oil Falls for a Second Day on Speculation U.S. Fuel Demand Will Drop

 Oil declined to trade near a four- day low, as falling equity markets reinforced doubts about the global economic recovery while the end of the U.S. summer peak consumption season signaled lower demand from refiners.
Yesterday’s U.S. Labor Day holiday marked the end of the driving season. Refiners often idle units for maintenance in September and October as gasoline demand drops and before heating-oil use increases. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell as much as 0.7 percent. Asian stocks also declined, with the benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapping four days of gains.
“Weak Asian markets and the weak start in Europe are pushing oil lower,” Gerrit Zambo, a trader with Bayerische Landesbank, said from Munich.
Crude for October delivery dropped as much as $1.39, or 1.9 percent, to $73.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $73.29 at 10:06 a.m. London time. Yesterday’s transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement purposes, as there was no floor trading on Labor Day.
Brent crude for October settlement declined 89 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $75.98 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange in London.
Crude also dropped as the dollar gained for a second day against the 16-nation euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. The U.S. currency was at $1.2769 to the European currency, up from $1.2876 yesterday in New York.
“Equities are weaker and the dollar is stronger, so for the next few days we’re likely to move in a $70-$75 range,” Frank Schallenberger, head of commodities research at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, said from Stuttgart.
Rising crude oil inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, are also weighing on petroleum prices, Schallenberger said. U.S. stockpiles of crude are currently about 5 percent higher than a year ago.

Commodities: Oil retreats in subdued trading

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Crude oil futures fell on Monday with trading mostly subdued due to the US Labor Day holiday. 

While there was no floor trading during Monday’s holiday crude for October delivery fell 58 to $74.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 

Concern about declining demand for oil drove prices lower, as the US driving season comes to an end. Monday’s Labor Day officially marked the end of the summer driving season. 

Unease about the struggling US economy and an oversupplied oil market is also weighing on oil demand. Crude inventory levels are now at the highest level since June, according to last week’s figures from the Energy Department. 

Traders will also be keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Hermine, which reached the Gulf of Mexico Monday evening US time. 

Gold for December delivery was little changed at $1,251.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Floor trading was closed Monday for the US holiday.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

The ad that uses YouTube brilliantly

There is a strange and troubling rumor that YouTube is actually beginning to make money. (No, this is not merely because of the millions who continue to enjoy JK's supremely inventive wedding dance.)
Indeed, Google CEO Eric Schmidt was quoted by The New York Times as saying, "YouTube is a big component of our display revenue, and display is our next big business."
There is even talk that YouTube will earn $450 million this year. But it's hard to remember too many great ads that have graced YouTube's often prosaic surface.
However, I am grateful to MediaBeat for bringing to my attention this lovely ad for the Liquid Paper-like product Tipp-Ex--an ad clearly constructed specifically to take advantage of YouTube's many physical dimensions.
(The ad does include a few injudiciously excitable phrases, so I'll put on the seat belt sign: NSFW--not safe for work.)

As you enjoy watching the hunter in this home-video-like ad avail himself of the Tipp-Ex--which is conveniently displayed next to the bogus home video in what would otherwise be a conventional and boring little YouTube ad box--please also enjoy some of the possibilities the ad gives you, once you realize the bear might not die. (In this respect, the ad may well have been influenced by Burger King's "subservient chicken" of several years ago, not to mention the more recent Old Spice campaign.)
There will be those who will enter difficult words like "kissing" in the space the Tipp-Ex creates in the title of the "home video." Inserting the word "kissing" is actually a good place to start. You will see that the creators are blessed with a fine sense of the absurd.
There was a day when it was the ads--especially in countries like the U.K.--that elevated the style level of TV. Now, perhaps, the lovable mess that is YouTube might be considerably lifted by more ads of this quality.

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